A lengthy and contentious chapter in Democrat who has led somewhat of a charmed political life up to this point — winning two terms as mayor, two terms as lieutenant governor and a landslide victory in the 2018 governor’s race.
Forty-five candidates are angling to finish out Newsom’s term in office. Even so, polls suggest most voters are opposed to the recall. And close to 40% of them had already voted in the final hour-by-hour reports compiled by political analysts.
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Turnout, yes, but it’s really about Democrats
Elections are unquestionably influenced by events and emotions, but in the final analysis, it’s all about the math. And the recall election, from the very beginning, has been one in which Newsom could prevail simply by motivating his base voters to show up.
Democrats largely have a two-to-one advantage over Republicans in statewide elections, in large part because most Republican dilemma in a nutshell: There are now about 6.6 million more voters in the state than there were in the 2003 recall where then-Gov. Gray Davis was removed from office and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected. One might assume that growth would be somewhat spread out across the political spectrum.
But there are actually fewer Republican voters now than there were 18 years ago, while there are 3.5 million more Democrats than in 2003. It’s the kind of asymmetry that most casual political observers haven’t taken into account when they’ve seen passionate recall supporters waving signs and flooding social media. Newsom’s fate rests with 10.3 million Democrats and perhaps 3 million or so independent voters who usually support Democratic causes.
The mid-summer poll conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times found some lethargy among Democrats. But when those voters were surveyed in the poll released Friday, Democrats’ energy had changed. And as of Monday, analysts reported that 52% of all ballots turned in so far were from Democrats — a number that, because it doesn’t include independent voters — probably underestimates Newsom’s potential support.
The bottom line is that Democrats, if they so choose, can easily overwhelm Republicans who want Newsom fired.
Vote totals on Question #2
Democrats also play a supporting role in election night’s other big drama: how many ballots are marked with a choice on the recall’s second question, the person who would replace Newsom if a majority of voters choose to remove him on the first question.
Public and private polls are unified in finding that Republican Larry Elder, the conservative talk radio host and first-time candidate, is the front-runner in the replacement contest. The Berkeley/Times poll released Friday found Elder is favored by 38% of likely voters — almost four times the level of support for the next closest candidate, Democrat Kevin Paffrath, and almost five times the number of voters who picked Republican Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of Democrats said they are taking Newsom’s advice and not touching the second part of the recall ballot. That could translate into millions of fewer votes in the replacement election (which only counts if Newsom loses the recall). If the polls are wrong and Newsom is removed, his successor could be chosen by an electorate that is far more conservative than any statewide election in a decade or longer.
And if Newsom prevails, it would be another way that his opponents misunderstand the results — because only looking at percentages on election night won’t show how many ballots were actually cast.
The recall as a proxy for other fights
Remember as the votes start to be counted that unlike the 2003 recall of Davis, the effort to remove Newsom has felt more like an extension of national political themes than just what’s happening in their very first response to the recall petition. Supporters, meanwhile, originally invoked immigration issues — influenced by the state, yes, but largely a national policy — as grounds to remove Newsom. And both sides have sought to weaponize the COVID-19 crisis, especially when it comes to vaccinations and vaccine mandates. Newsom has decried conspiracy theories while pro-recall Republicans have sought to frame the vaccine debate as one of government overreach and individual freedom.
Press releases and social media posts have consistently played up other national themes, including climate change and criminal justice. Compare that to 2003, when Schwarzenegger and Davis sparred over